Monday, February 27, 2012

G-20 answers how large are the losses hidden in Eurozone financial system

Regular readers know that under the Japanese model for handling a bank solvency based financial crisis banks, with regulatory approval, hide the true extent of their on and off balance sheet losses (see RBS's Stephen Hester confession).

Naturally, your humble blogger is curious as to just how big the losses are that are being hidden.

The G-20 provided an estimate for the Eurozone sovereign debt related losses.  From an article in the Telegraph, the figure appears to be about $1.5 trillion.

This also happens to be the amount of money the G-20 is requiring the Eurozone to put into its financial firewall before non-Eurozone countries would be willing to provide any financial support.

There is a logic behind the G-20s request for $1.5 trillion.

Remember, each member of the G-20 has also adopted the Japanese model.  As a result, they have some knowledge of the size of the losses that their own banking system is hiding.  It is a simple matter to take these losses and scale them assuming that the Eurozone is hiding similar losses.

Then, having estimated the size of the losses hiding in the Eurozone, it makes sense to require the Eurozone to cover these losses before providing any financial support.  Otherwise, the G-20 countries would be covering the Eurozone losses.
In an interview with Sky News, Mr Osborne said: "We are prepared to consider IMF resources but only once we see colour of eurozone money and we have not seen this. 
"While at this G20 conference there are a lot of things to discuss, I don't think you're going to see any extra resources committed here because eurozone countries have not committed additional resources themselves, and I think that quid pro quo will be clearly established here in Mexico City." 
Pressure to mount a large enough financial firewall to head off eurozone sovereign debt concerns has been mounting this weekend, after America, Brazil, and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development all pushed for a funding increase. 
Angel Gurria, the head of the OECD, set the tone at the conference on Saturday, calling for about $1.5 trillion in "firewall" funds aimed at restoring confidence in European countries' debt....
Guido Mantega, the finance minister of Brazil, said "there is a very strongly shared opinion that first, the European countries should strengthen their firewall."... 
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said: "I hope we´re going to see, and expect we´ll see, continued efforts by Europeans to put in place a stronger and more credible firewall."

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